First time in 16 years...

I was convinced Hilary Clinton was going to become President of the United States.

I was convinced of this even when Obama was racking up victories right left and centre and gaining a lead in delegates. My conviction did not waver when every endorsement that was announced seemed to be going the way of Barack Obama. I was still sure even when it was announced that Hilary’s campaign was in financial problems and she had to lend it 5m dollars. I was sure I was seeing the pre-cursor to a ‘game-changer’ during the last 3 weeks of Obama’s pastor and his comments on bitter voters.

I devoured reports, articles and analysis online that sought to project how Hilary Clinton could still win the Democratic nomination and I came to the conclusion that her best chance was to win the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. A decent win in Indiana and even a squeaky one in NC would have sufficed. She didn’t do this. She lost in NC by a good margin and squeaked a 2point win in Indiana.

Lights Out. The End. Finito. Endgame.

It was always going to be hard to overturn a black candidate who had the lead in pledged delegates and popular vote. And if the voters haven’t deemed him unelectable after the last month he’s had, none of the supers would dare do it now.

I am not an American. I have not and will never vote in an American election. But hearing me and some of my Nigerian friends in New Zealand argue about the current campaign you would think we were crafting Hilary’s and Barack’s speeches and setting the tone for their individual campaigns. (I am the only Hilary supporter by the way in a group of maybe 7). Having no direct stake in this election I still cannot quite shake this feeling of disappointment I feel. It’s never easy when someone you support falls short. I was supporting Hilary from an intellectual point of view, believing she would make the better President out of the three remaining candidates.

Now IF I AM feeling disappointed, how must the ardent American supporter feel, her campaign team? How must Hilary herself feel? And yet this is a staple of a democratic contest. Someone MUST lose. And after investing so much of your time, energy, money and commitment that feeling that the majority of people don’t support you must be crushing.

And yet America has been doing this for the better part of almost 300 years.

There have always been losers and winners’, perfecting the process so losing isn’t so debilitating and instead you learn from your mistakes and focus on the next election. Al Gore took his loss in 2000 a bit badly at first but then rebounded up out of it to become THE senior figure in his party (bar Bill 42) and win an Oscar for his new found love of the environment. He could have taken his appeal even further than he did but by then it wasn’t about him anymore but about something bigger. He gave up on his attempt so the country could move on.

There needs to be selflessness when you contemplate conceding electoral defeat. This might seem obvious to people who have lived in countries with multi-party democracies but I come from a country where flawed elections are the norm and even when they are fair the loser just cannot imagine conceding and would rather scuttle the whole process so the other person doesn’t get it. (Hilary has been accused of wanting to do this so Obama can lose in November and she can run again in 2012)

So in mature democracies, your strategies focus on how to get the majority of people to support your bid rather than victory or nothing else. A victory or nothing else strategy focuses on getting into power no matter what. Actually taking the time to craft policies to get people on your side is not part of it. Projecting a wonderful personality that connects with majority of the people is out the window. Working hard to ensure those that support you actually cast a vote is not really necessary. It’s all about manipulating the process so the end result shows that you won. When you did nothing of the sort.

I wonder how, where and when Clinton will concede defeat now. Whatever happens, it’s going to be a huge event.

Back in the Game

Above title could be given to both Hilary Clinton and Me self.

To me because after over a month’s absence from my blog I am finally posting again.

And to Hilary Clinton because she won the states of Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries on the road to becoming President of the United States.

After having the US media count her out twice before in this contest, she has at the very least ensured that calls for her to withdraw cannot be made with any validity. HRC was apparently able to stop the 11-state month-long winning streak of Barack Obama by “going negative” in the run up to Tuesday’s contests. She ‘threw the sink’ at him apparently. (I love that expression!)

There were three main thrusts according to US media. A debateable ad showing sleeping kids at 3am and asking who Americans would feel more comfortable with when a national security phone call came through; Highlighting Obama’s links to a landlord in Chicago whose trial for criminal activity started this week; And finally the revelation that one of Obama’s top advisors had spoken to the Canadian government and told them not to pay attention to Obama’s posture on NAFTA.

All this apparently swung the late deciders Hilary’s way.

Hilary was also able to bring to the fore the unfair media handling of the two Democratic candidates. She opined that Obama was getting a ‘free ride’ from the media and perhaps out of guilt the media DID sharpen its scrutiny of the potentially historical Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States.

For a neutral like I (ok ok not so neutral… I do think Hilary is the better candidate) I am concerned about the impact of this on the Democrats' chances in the general election. It is obvious Hilary and Obama have legitimate arguments to want to be named nominee of the party. At this stage of the contest, whoever gets nominated will have a huge task of bringing in the other person’s supporters. I believe that either one of these candidates would still win in the general election in November but ONLY if this impasse is resolved in a way that ensures both sets of supporters bring the energy and excitement they have thus far brought to the nomination process to the general election.

Drawing out the contest does not guarantee this. And it doesnt help that the Republicans have already confirmed John McCain as their nominee for the general election. He now has the opportunity to sit back and watch the Democrats eat themselves alive!

So what to do? Perhaps an Obama and Hilary team-up? Dream Ticket anybody? But who would be Prez and who would be Vice? And is America ready for BOTH a black man AND a woman on the same ticket? They definitely seem ready for one or the other but both at the same time?
Whatever happens, it definitely makes for a gripping narrative!

I Love American politics.